⚡ CT ALERT — RETALIATION TRIGGER ACTIVE — PARALLEL MODEL ENGAGED
Assessment Dimensions
WEIGHTED A–F OPERATIONAL · G CT SUB-MODEL
Operational Score
/ 12.0 pts
0.0
out of 12.0
DETERRENCE
No action signal
Operational base0.0
Market timing+0.0
Threat cycle+0.0
TOTAL0.0
036912
⚡ CT SUB-MODEL — RETALIATION / OPPORTUNITY
—
INACTIVE
Parallel model — independent. Activate in the G panel below. Does not add to operational score.
Score Breakdown
CONTRIBUTION BY DIM
Thresholds
CALIBRATED v4.0
0 – 4.0
DETERRENCE
—
4.1 – 8.0
WATCH
Weeks
8.1 – 9.5
HIGH PROB.
1–3 weeks
9.6 – 12.0
IMMINENT
72h–10 days
Watch threshold raised to 8.0 (from 7.0). Reduces false positives in the 7–8 ambiguity band validated in the retrospective dataset.
Score Modifiers
RECALIBRATED WEIGHTS v4.0 · CLICK TO TOGGLE
▲ INCREASE PROBABILITY
▼ REDUCE PROBABILITY
CONDITIONAL RULE v4.0
Active negotiations weigh −1.5 (not −1.0) when operational score is below 9.5. Above that threshold the diplomatic channel no longer contains imminence.
Prior unexecuted ultimatum weighs an additional −0.5 if Trump threatened this same theater within the past 90 days without following through.
G — CT Sub-Model / Retaliation
NEW v4.0
G — RETALIATION TRIGGER / INTELLIGENCE OPPORTUNITY LEVEL
Inactive. Select trigger level.
ACTIVE CT CONDITIONS
Runs parallel to the main score — does not add to it.
Activates when G=2 regardless of the operational score.
Captures: Somalia CT, Iraq CT, Syria retaliation strikes.
CT window: D+1 to D+7 after trigger event.
COMPOUND CONDITION — REAL IMMINENCE (E+A+B RULE)
E+A+B RULE v4.0
If E=2 but A≤1 AND B≤1 simultaneously → effective score cap = 8.5, regardless of the raw sum.
Declared intent without logistical (A) and diplomatic (B) backing cannot produce real imminence.
RULE: INACTIVE
ISRAEL COORDINATION EXCEPTION — D WEIGHT OVERRIDE
Israel coordinating operationally
Synchronized deployments / joint strikes confirmed. D weight becomes ×1.0 (not ×0.5) in the Middle East theater.
×2D
Midnight Hammer Jun 2025 / Feb 2026: Israel coordination was a genuine imminence signal, not a routine consultation. Documented exception to Trump's low-coordination pattern.
PRIOR UNEXECUTED ULTIMATUM — SAME THEATER
Prior ultimatum not followed through (<90 days)
Trump issued an ultimatum in this theater within the past 90 days and did not execute a strike.
−0.5
Market Timing Module
CONDITIONAL v4.0 · ACTIVE ONLY IF BASE SCORE ≥ 6
CURRENT DAY OF THE WEEK
NYSE / NASDAQ—
Next close—
Preferred strike window—
—
TIMING FAVORABILITY
0.0
SCORE ADJUSTMENT
v4.0 CHANGE — CONDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT
Market timing only adds to the score when the operational base score ≥ 6. Below that threshold the day of the week is not a determining factor and should not inflate the number artificially.
THREAT → SUSPENSION → MARKET RELIEF CYCLE
Iran 2025–26 case: public ultimatum with extreme language → oil price spike (prior inelasticity amplifies) → suspension → price drop. Cycle may be deliberately engineered or opportunistically exploited.
MARKET MANIPULATION / EXPLOITATION SIGNALS
CUMULATIVE EFFECT ON FINAL SCORE
Operational base0.0
Day timing adj.+0.0
Threat cycle adj.+0.0
FINAL SCORE0.0
F · Cabinet Dynamics
TRUMP-SPECIFIC
F=2 (active hawkish pressure) compresses the action window from D+3–D+7 to D+1–D+4 when A≥1.
F=2 SIGNALS: hawkish advisors giving solo press briefings, leaking hardline positions, appearing without moderating counterparts.
PATTERN:F=2 + A≥1 is the combination that most compresses the warning window. In the Soleimani case it was the last signal to appear but the most decisive.
Scenario Notes
FREE FIELD
The number fades; the reasoning doesn't. Document why you reached this score.